Predictions
Predictions, on the record.
Writing about the future is cheap. Being right about it is not. Every call here has a deadline and a confidence, and keeps its original wording; when its time comes, it is scored in public. Right or wrong, it stays up.
- On the record
- 0
- Open
- 0
- Right
- 0
- Too optimistic
- 0
- Too pessimistic
- 0
- Technically
- 0
Nothing scored yet
How calls are scored
- The wording never changes.
- A call keeps the words it was published with. Anything learned later goes underneath as a dated update.
- Every call has a deadline type.
- By a year means no later than the end of it. Not before means it will not happen earlier. Not in my lifetime means 2050 or later.
- Misses say which way they missed.
- Too optimistic or too pessimistic — not just wrong. Technically marks a milestone hit on paper but not what was promised.
- Only where I have an edge.
- I make calls about things I build, use or can check closely, and say when a bet has an outside judge.
The first predictions go on the record soon.